I am aware that some have not appreciated the effort of drawing lots as the means to choose seven individuals to write the Statement. As I contemplate what has happened and delve deeper into the many “coincidence’s” which have come to light in the effort, I simply stand all amazed at what has taken place, and thought, perhaps, you might enjoy the following.
The Equality Factor
Perhaps there are other processes which could give participants the equality of which we have been taught so much lately, but so does drawing of lots. There were 185 unique numbers in the (now famous/infamous) spittoon. Each number was unique to a person who had accepted this process and submitted their own name, or had submitted another’s name [who also accepted]. Without factoring in other things such as shape and size of Elaine’s hand, or size of the spittoon, or the type of tag used, or other tools of the statistician’s trade, each number in the pot had, at first drawing, 1 in 185 chances of being drawn. As Elaine dipped her hand into the pot the second time each number had 1 in 184 chances of being drawn, etc., until the 14th consecutive drawn number offered a 1 in 171 chance for each number in the pot to be drawn. Every number in the pot had, at each picking, as equal a chance as every other number in the pot to be drawn. Every person had the same offer to put his/her name in for the drawing. This WAS a way to produce equality among all this Covenant group.
There were 114 unique numbers in the pot representing males, while there were 71 representing females. This means that by random chance alone there should have been 5 numbers drawn representing women, to 9 numbers drawn representing men. Yet there were 12 men vs 2 women, and those two women are split, one in the first group of 7, and one in the second group of 7. The probability that it would happen this way in each group of 7 is about 1 in 2,500.
I am told that the odds of drawing a husband and wife were approximately 33,000 to 1. And the odds of drawing the husband and wife consecutively would be 33,000 to one, to the 185th power. Other things we could list that would effect the probability of this couple would be the couple themselves, who they are among us. Another could be the drawing of the husband first and the wife next. In other words the result is so small as to be statistically zero.
Other improbabilities exist.
In the first group of seven one of the individuals lives in the United Kingdom, but happens to be the son in law of another member in that group, and is in regular communication with his father in law.
The fact that Jeff Savage’s name was drawn in the 14th spot or even drawn at all is very very very small (I couldn’t get anyone to calculate the numbers for this, but this was the common opinion). I wonder if for Jeff the case could be made that “the first shall be last and the last shall be first. At the very least God is aware of Jeff Savage. Jeff, many of us love you for what you did.
But, perhaps for me the greatest evidence of God’s hand in this drawing is the product itself. Read for yourself the “Plea” and then the “Guide and Standard” and experience for yourself the message of peace contained in them, and see if perhaps you can also agree.
I would like to echo the sentiment expressed by the compilers, Praise be to our God for His mercy and goodness. These are His words compiled by those He chose.